The recent surge in global crude oil prices has raised concerns about a new wave of inflation in Pakistan.
According to a research report, if global crude oil prices exceed 100 dollars per barrel, Pakistan’s inflation rate could rise to between 9 and 11 percent in the coming months.
The report states that increasing tensions in the Middle East and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are pushing global energy prices higher, which could directly affect Pakistan’s economy.
If crude oil prices remain around 100 dollars per barrel for an extended period, Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index could increase by approximately 2.8 to 3.7 percent.
Data shows that Brent crude prices, which were around 68.70 dollars per barrel at the beginning of 2026, rose to 92.69 dollars per barrel by March 8, marking nearly a 35 percent increase. During the week, Brent crude also briefly touched a high of 94.51 dollars per barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude reached 90.90 dollars per barrel, recording its largest weekly gain in futures trading history at around 35.6 percent.
The report further notes that the sharp rise in global oil prices could force Pakistan to pass the cost burden on to domestic consumers, mainly through higher transportation and food costs.
Fuel and transport account for about 6 percent of the Consumer Price Index basket, and a 20 percent increase in fuel prices could raise overall inflation by around 1.2 percent.
